Earth project aims to ‘simulate everything’

by Gareth Morgan, BBC Technology News

An international group of scientists are aiming to create a simulator that can replicate everything happening on Earth – from global weather patterns and the spread of diseases to international financial transactions or congestion on Milton Keynes’ roads.

Nicknamed the Living Earth Simulator (LES), the project aims to advance the scientific understanding of what is taking place on the planet, encapsulating the human actions that shape societies and the environmental forces that define the physical world.

“Many problems we have today – including social and economic instabilities, wars, disease spreading – are related to human behaviour, but there is apparently a serious lack of understanding regarding how society and the economy work,” says Dr Helbing, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, who chairs the FuturICT project which aims to create the simulator.

……..

What is needed is a knowledge accelerator, to collide different branches of knowledge, he says. “Revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies constitutes the most pressing scientific grand challenge of our century.”

The result would be the LES. It would be able to predict the spread of infectious diseases, such as Swine Flu, identify methods for tackling climate change or even spot the inklings of an impending financial crisis, he says.

But how would such colossal system work?

For a start it would need to be populated by data – lots of it – covering the entire gamut of activity on the planet, says Dr Helbing.

It would also be powered by an assembly of yet-to-be-built supercomputers capable of carrying out number-crunching on a mammoth scale.

Although the hardware has not yet been built, much of the data is already being generated, he says.

For example, the Planetary Skin project, led by US space agency Nasa, will see the creation of a vast sensor network collecting climate data from air, land, sea and space.

In addition, Dr Helbing and his team have already identified more than 70 online data sources they believe can be used including Wikipedia, Google Maps and the UK government’s data repository Data.gov.uk.

……..

Integrating such real-time data feeds with millions of other sources of data – from financial markets and medical records to social media – would ultimately power the simulator, says Dr Helbing.

“It’s not that we don’t know enough about a lot of the problems the world faces, from climate change to extreme poverty, it’s that we don’t take any action on the information we do have,” he argues.

Regardless of the challenges the project faces, the greater danger is not attempting to use the computer tools we have now – and will have in future – to improve our understanding of global socio-economic trends, says Dr Helbing……  Read the BBC Report

DCL: These guys always talk about “Data”. But  they will really have to do complex event processing. To have the effects they want to have, they have to process everything as it becomes available in Right Now time!  And  build abstractions that give humanly understandable views of what is happening